An accomplished list of predictions based on statistics and gut feel
Oracle Photo by Valve | Illustrations by Mineski.net
We’re merely a couple of days away before The International 2019 launches with its group stages, but before we get all excited for the highly-anticipated Dota 2 tournament of the year, don’t forget to lock in your The International 2019 Compendium predictions for some easy Battle Pass points.
Here, check out our list!
Heroes
Most Picked Hero: Grimstroke
Since his addition in Captain’s Mode in 7.20, Grimstroke has been a staple meta pick. His almost perfect skill set, that is complete with wave clear and most crowd control abilities such as slow, stun, and silence, significantly places him above the current meta’s viable support heroes. Though The International always has its own meta, Grimstroke’s contribution in the laning stage and team fights is still hard to match.
Consider picking: Ancient Apparition, Rubick, Spirit Breaker
Most Banned Hero: Chen
Io was usually the go-to answer to this question, barring The International 2017 when Night Stalker was more overpowered than the shining ball of light. After a series of nerfs, skill reworks, and talent adjustments, however, it looks like Valve has finally succeeded in nerfing the Wisp, putting the spotlight on the second most imbalanced lane babysitter—Chen.
Consider picking: Io, Earthshaker, Ember Spirit
Hero with highest Win Rate: Broodmother
Though one of the tricks to answering this category is to simply select a hero that is used only as a pocket strategy, getting this one right is actually harder than it seems. However, you can hardly go wrong with hero less popular in the meta as they tend to maintain a higher win rate with fewer games played.
Consider picking: Elder Titan, Huskar, Bloodseeker
Hero with highest Kill avg: Clinkz
Clinkz may be a less popular carry compared to the likes of Juggernaut, Morphling, or Terrorblade, but this wind-walking skeleton can surely rack up some kills. In fact, Clinkz has recently scored the highest kill average in EPICENTER Major 2019 with 12 kills in five games, including the qualifiers. This trend is expected to continue since it’s still unlikely for Clinkz to gain a higher pick rate.
*Consider picking: Morphling, Storm Spirit, Ursa
Hero with highest Assist avg: Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker emerged out of the sideline this season thanks to Bulldoze, which made roaming via Charge of Darkness faster and more successful. Multiple Dota Pro Circuit events saw him racking up assists, but he reached his peak during the last Major in Moscow, Russia, where he notched a tournament-high 16.71 assists average.
*Consider picking: Ancient Apparition, Zeus, Venomancer
Hero with lowest Death avg: Lone Druid
We understand that heroes with escape mechanism should be the obvious choices, but Lone Druid actually is the perfect hero for this category. He’s less likely to be picked nowadays, ultimately reducing the variables to averaging. Not to mention that his gameplay remains to be the relationship between a bodyguard and a big boss—Lone Druid watches from afar while his Spirit Bear does all the dirty work.
Consider picking: Anti-Mage, Lifestealer, Phantom Assassin
Hero with highest last hit avg: Anti-Mage
Anti-Mage picks may have relatively dwindled during The International 2019 qualifiers, but I’m still betting my money on this guy. During the 44 LAN games he was picked this season, Anti-Mage scored an average last hits of 463. Naga Siren came in second with 452 last hit average but with 10 fewer games.
Consider picking: Naga Siren, Arc Warden, Terrorblade
Hero with highest XPM avg: Meepo
Meepo has been popularly known for its ability to stack up an insane amount of XPM in a single game thanks to the foundation of his hero design, Divided We Stand. Also, considering the presence of notorious Meepo pickers like, Nisha, Abed, Ace, and w33 in The International 2019, it’s highly unlikely for the Geomancer to lose this category.
Consider picking: Arc Warden, Weaver, Templar Assassin
Hero with most Kills in a game: Morphling
This category often looks for a hero that may or may not suit well in the current meta, but should definitely possess the ability to melt down a hero’s health bar in mere seconds. According to recent trends, Morphling’s shotgun into Adaptive Strike combo gets this kind of job done.
Consider picking: Phantom Assassin, Storm Spirit, Ember Spirit
Hero with most Last Hits in a game: Naga Siren
Lately, Naga Siren has been slithering her way back into the meta as a carry primarily due to the changes to her flash-farming ability, Rip Tide. Combine that with her innate ability to produce illusions and the fact that most Naga Siren games exceed 40 minutes, Naga Siren is a solid bet to this category.
Consider picking: Anti-Mage, Medusa, Arc Warden
Teams
Which team will win?
If there’s one thing we learned about watching The International, it’s that this question, despite being one of the most frequently asked, is the hardest to answer. We’ve seen heavy favorites falter and underdogs rise. So if you still want my take on this, it’s this: follow your heart.
Team with most Kills in a game: Evil Geniuses
Any team in the upper half of the Dota Pro Circuit rankings can honestly win this category. All of them can play a fast or long game, and are also cold-blooded killers. However, since we’ve picked SumaiL to be the player with the most kills in a game, we’ll go along with Evil Geniuses.
Team with highest Kill avg: TNC Predator
We’ve already mentioned above that TNC Predator has highest game time average compared to other contenders, this category correlates to that fact. On top of that, the Filipino representatives are also in for team fights, making almost all of their games an absolute blood bath.
Team with fewest Deaths in a game: Team Secret
Unlike the category before this one, predicting which team will score the fewest death/s in a game is actually harder to predict. Back in the day, this could easily be a Chinese team because of their patented slow and steady play style, but this time, it’s better to opt for a team that can close games fast such as the current powerhouses in Team Secret and Virtus.pro.
Team with most Assists in a game: OG
We’ll be picking OG because, spoiler alert, we picked them in the next category. Longer game time equates to more team fights and more team fights equates to more assists. Plus with JerAx and N0tail as their support duo, it’s very likely for them to win this category. (We didn’t pick them to score the most kills in a single game, because there are more team fight-oriented teams other than them.)
Team that wins the Longest game: OG
We were witnesses to OG’s run last year, and we’ve learned that this team can win unwinnable games—no matter how long it should take. With them retaining last year’s roster, plus the viability of Spectre and Centaur Warrunner in the current meta, OG can very well win this category.
Team that wins the Shortest game: Virtus.pro
The International may be their weakness, but this doesn’t change the fact that the boys of Virtus.pro are cold-blooded killers. They are the kind of team that refuses to look back once they are ahead, and can close things out as soon as possible.
Team with highest Game Length avg: TNC Predator
Aside from China’s Royal Never Give Up, the Philippines’ bet is the only team with an average game time that exceed 40 minutes. TNC Predator has a habit of playing from behind, making them the optimum pick for this category.
Team that picks the Most different heroes: Team Secret
We’ve mentioned above how zai is most likely to be the player with the most number of unique heroes played, but he’s not the only versatile player in Team Secret. Aside from that fact, Team Secret is also very likely to go far into the tournament, meaning more games for them to play different heroes.
Team that picks the Fewest different heroes (minimum 10 games): Mineski-Dota
Picking Mineski-Dota doesn’t necessarily mean that we think they’ll head for the early exit, though that narrative, too, is not very unlikely. Objectively, the well-decorated Southeast Asian organization is also one of the least versatile teams attending The International.
Players
Player with highest Kill avg: Miracle-
Team Liquid’s superstar midlaner has played a total of 123 games this season to achieve an impressive 9.35 kill average. Statistics-wise, Miracle-’s record is considerably significant compared to other contenders. Not to mention the fact that he was also the player with the highest kill average last The International with a flat 11.00 in 24 games.
Consider picking: ana, SumaiL, Paparazi
Player with most Kills in a game: SumaiL
Last The International, SumaiL held this record after ending a game against OG with 31 kills on his Tiny. Two months after in the Kuala Lumpur Major, SumaiL notched once more a record-setting 28 kills on his Mirana. We don’t want to play the “history repeats itself” card, but SumaiL is actually that consistent when it comes to killing.
Consider picking: Miracle-, ana, Paparazi
Player with lowest Death avg: Nisha
The breakout carry player of the season has recorded an average of 2.45 deaths in 73 LAN games during the entirety of the 2018-19 Dota Pro Circuit. If you’re still not convinced with that stat alone, take a glimpse at his hero pool, which mostly consists of hard-to-kill carries such as Morphling, Arc Warden, and Phantom Lancer, and realize how this kid is practically immortal.
Consider picking: Ame, Arteezy, Paparazi
Player with highest Assist avg: Fade
Fade has been robbed off of his MVP award during the EPICENTER Major 2019, so let’s give him this one. In the 88 games that he played on stage this season, Vici Gaming’s captain notched an average of 15.72 assists. Although TNC Predator’s Eyyou recorded a higher average at 17.00, but only in 15 LAN games played, Fade’s numbers prove to be more consistent.
Consider picking: TIMS, Dy, fy
Player with most Assists in a game: TIMS
Spoiler alert: TNC Predator has the longest game time average among all The International 2019 participants. If longer game times equates to more kills, and eventually more assists, TIMS statistically has a higher chance to win this category compared to other players in his role. (During the entire Dota Pro Circuit season however, the player that scored the most assists in a single game and will be competing at Shanghai is Puppey. He scored 39 assists as Bane in an almost two-hour game against Gambit Esports.)
Consider picking: YapzOr, Puppey, GH
Player with highest Last Hit avg: Ace
Ace’s arsenal is made up of heroes who rely on items to be an effective team fighting tool. This includes carries such as Terrorblade, Medusa, Anti-Mage, and Spectre to name a few. Ninjas in Pyjamas’ core racked up 389 last hit average in 105 LAN games last season, making him the player most suited for this category out of all TI9 attendees.
Consider picking: Gabbi, Ame, miCKe
Player with most Last Hits in a game: Ace
This part has always been tricky since it’s absolutely situational, but there’s still a logical way to accurately predict the answer. And after considering his hero pool, his last hit average, Ninjas in Pyjamas’ average LAN game time, which stands at a little over 39 minutes, and his 1030 last hits record on Medusa against EHOME in the OGA Dota PIT 2019, ace should fit the bill.
Consider picking: Gabbi, Monet, Nisha
Player with most GPM in a game: SumaiL
This category should be easier compared to the ones similar to its type—just pick the most notorious Alchemist player amongst the pool of TI9 attendees and you’re basically good to go. Before you lock Evil Geniuses’ wunderkind, however, keep in mind that Natus Vincere’s midlane player, MagicaL, has played the most Alchemist games in LAN during the entire Dota Pro Circuit, and the highest GPM record on the hero is currently held by PSG.LGD’s Maybe.
Consider picking: MagicaL, Maybe, Armel
Player with highest GPM avg: Ame
PSG.LGD’s carry player has an average of 658 GPM in 71 Dota Pro Circuit matches. He’s tied with Miracle-, except with fewer games. This further proves how consistent and efficient Ame is when it comes to utilizing resources.
Consider picking: Miracle-, Nisha, RAMZES666
Player that plays the most different heroes: Zai
Zai is in the perfect position to win this category. Aside from being naturally versatile, the current meta allows the offlane role to play a myriad of heroes, from the usual initiators like Centaur Warrunner, Dark Seer, and Tidehunter, to utter lane dominators like Enchantress, Venomancer, and Pugna.
Tournament
Total number of Games Played at the Main Event: 45 to 49
Considering the fact that The International 2019 reflects the same main event format as its predecessors, 45 to 49 games is an accurate prediction.
Total number of heroes Picked: 101+
We ain’t watching primitive Dota where only five midlane heroes are viable in the meta anymore.
Total number of heroes Banned: 91 to 100
Unlike the aforementioned prediction, the total number of heroes banned category has a slimmer diversity. One factor is the existence of cheese picks or surprise last pick. In that aspect, banning, on the other hand, only has priority ban, or comfort pick ban. Ultimately eliminating the chance of having a higher ban count other than this option.
Most Combined Kills in a game: 91 to 100
This category correlates with the longest game of the tournament category. Last year, the group stage matchup between Mineski-Dota and Fnatic Dota scored the longest game of the tournament, and only had a combined kill value within this category. Considering that and the recent trends, it’s unlikely to be any higher or lower.
Longest game of the tournament: 80:00 to 89:59
The current competitive trend is less likely to lean towards long and tiring games given the popularity of Ember Spirit, Morphling, Leshrac, and Storm Spirit, core heroes without long cooldown abilities like Terrorblade, Death Prophet, Faceless Void, or Spectre. Unless there’s a part two of the Team Empire versus iG.Vitality back in The International 2017, 80:00 to 89:59 should be a safe bet.
Shortest game of the tournament: 15:00 to 19:59
Game times shorter than this can only happen if its either utter dominance or simply rage quit. This is The International and it’s going to be played by the best Dota 2 teams in the world. Considering that no premature gg call will happen, this is probably the safest choice.
Most Kills by a hero in a game: 26+
Given the fact that the heroes in the current meta have the ability to take down enemies quick, 26+ kills in a single game is absolutely not far from impossible.
Most Deaths by a hero in a game: 18 to 20
Since the Battle Pass became a thing in 2016, no hero has died more than 20 times in The International, the most was n0tail’s 20 deaths in Pugna against Virtus.pro. If you think that this iteration will be a record-breaker, then go ahead with the 21+ option, but 18 to 20 for this category should be the safest choice.
Most Assists by a hero in a game: 36+
Unlike the most kills and most deaths categories, this one is harder to predict primarily because it’s easier to rack up assists. Last year, PSG.LGD fy was one assist away from making this choice wrong, however, during The International 2017, the iG.Vitality’s super racked up 44 assists. But since its the world’s best Dota 2 players we’re talking about again, it’s better to go all in.
Highest GPM by a hero in a game: 1000+
As long as Alchemist is a viable pick in the current meta, never not choose 1000+.
